The latest analysis by Skills for Logistics, the Sector Skills Council for the freight logistics industries, shows that the estimated shortage has significantly dropped from the predicted 46,000 the research indicated earlier in 2005.

The new survey was conducted by Skills for Logistics nationwide with 1200 UK companies who employ mainly goods vehicles drivers in autumn 2005.

The sample represented 26,000 drivers operating around 19,000 LGVs, 5,000 vans and 14,000 trailers.

Stephen Wells, Head of Research at Skills for Logistics, explains, "The industry originally estimated that the introduction of the Road Transport Directive (RTD) in spring 2005 would have had a more significant impact.

"As it turned out, the rules changed from those originally proposed which softened the blow and many companies have undertaken a proactive range of activities to minimise its effect, including more use of technology and the removal of non-driving work from drivers."

"The situation has clearly improved, but there could still be a shortage of 15,000 LGV drivers during the autumn demand peak which could cost our economy hundreds of millions of pounds per year.

"That's why it's so important that we continue to put effort and creativity into attracting good people into logistics and providing excellent training and development routes, such as our Professional Development Stairway which is intended to act as the careers roadmap for everyone who works in the logistics industry."

According to the companies surveyed:

• Just over half of the companies surveyed had recruited in the last year - with 50% of these stating that they found it 'very difficult' or 'difficult' to recruit.
• The number of overseas drivers entering the UK workforce rose faster than expected as a result of EU expansion.
• 7% of the total logistics workforce is drawn from ethnic minority groups but only 4% of drivers.
• The number of female drivers is still at a very low level - only 1%, however more women are obtaining their LGV licences.
• Weakness in the economy dampened demand for more drivers and reduced the percentage of those leaving voluntarily for non-driving jobs.

Mr Wells adds, "The survey demonstrates that progress is being made in the industry with the recruitment of a more diverse workforce with an increase in women and young people under the age of 25 obtaining their LGV licences, we need to build on this in order to continue to reduce the shortages further."